The epistemic fallacy

19 Jun, 2021 at 15:48 | Posted in Theory of Science & Methodology | 15 Comments

bhaskit is not the fact that science occurs that gives the world a structure such that it can be known by men. Rather, it is the fact that the world has such a structure that makes science, whether or not it actually occurs, possible. That is to say, it is not the character of science that imposes a determinate pattern or order on the world; but the order of the world that, under certain determinate conditions, makes possible the cluster of activities we call ‘science’. It does not follow from the fact that the nature of the world can only be known from (a study of) science, that its nature is determined by (the structure of) science. Propositions in ontology, i.e. about being, can only be established by reference to science. But this does not mean that they are disguised, veiled or otherwise elliptical propositions about science … The ‘epistemic fallacy’ consists in assuming that, or arguing as if, they are.

No philosopher of science has influenced yours truly’s thinking more than Roy did, and in a time when scientific relativism is still on the march, it is important to keep up his claim for not reducing science to a pure discursive level.

Roy-Bhaskar-009

Science is made possible by the fact that there exists a reality beyond our theories and concepts of it. It is this reality that our theories in some way deal with. Contrary to positivism, I cannot see that the main task of science is to detect event-regularities between observed facts. Rather, the task must be conceived as identifying the underlying structure and forces that produce the observed events.

The problem with positivist social science is not that it gives the wrong answers, but rather that in a strict sense it does not give answers at all. Its explanatory models presuppose that the social reality is ‘closed,’ and since social reality is fundamentally ‘open,’ models of that kind cannot explain anything about​ what happens in such a universe. Positivist social science has to postulate closed conditions to make its models operational and then – totally unrealistically – impute these closed conditions to society’s real structure.

What makes knowledge in social sciences possible is the fact that society consists of social structures and positions that influence the individuals of society, partly through their being the necessary prerequisite for the actions of individuals but also because they dispose individuals to act (within a given structure) in a certain way. These structures constitute the ‘deep structure’ of society.

Our observations and theories are concept-dependent without therefore necessarily being concept-determined. There is a reality existing independently of our knowledge and theories of it. Although we cannot apprehend it without using our concepts and theories, these are not the same as reality itself. Reality and our concepts of it are not identical. Social science is made possible by existing structures and relations in society that are continually reproduced and transformed by different actors.

Explanations and predictions of social phenomena require theory constructions. Just looking for correlations between events is not enough. One has to get under the surface and see the deeper underlying structures and mechanisms that essentially constitute the social system.

The basic question one has to pose when studying social relations and events are​ what are the fundamental relations without which they would cease to exist. The answer will point to causal mechanisms and tendencies that act in the concrete contexts we study. Whether these mechanisms are activated and what effects they will have in that case it is not possible to predict, since these depend on accidental and variable relations. Every social phenomenon is determined by a host of both necessary and contingent relations, and it is impossible in practice to have complete knowledge of these constantly changing relations. That is also why we can never confidently predict them. What we can do, through learning about the mechanisms of the structures of society, is to identify the driving forces behind them, thereby making it possible to indicate the direction in which things tend to develop.

The world itself should never be conflated with the knowledge we have of it. Science can only produce meaningful, relevant and realist knowledge if it acknowledges its dependence of the​ world out there. Ultimately that also means that the critique yours truly wages against mainstream economics is that it doesn’t take that ontological requirement seriously.

15 Comments

  1. Prof. Syll claims, without providing any evidence, that:
    “What we can do, through learning about the mechanisms of the structures of society, is to identify the driving forces behind them”.
    .
    Unfortunately he provides no illustrations and examples to clarify what he means by the following terms/concepts:
    “structures of society”
    “mechanisms of the structures of society”
    “driving forces behind mechanisms of the structures of society”
    “identification of driving forces”.
    .
    Without clarifications on such matters his claims are abstruse and obscure, little more than vacuous verbiage.
    .
    The only sense I can make out of this post is that:
    – Yes, real world societies far too complicated and ever-changing for it it be possible to explain or predict every detail.
    – So economists and other social scientists can only hope to find broad patterns – general tendencies, trends and inter-relationships between aggregates. (This may tally with what Prof. Syll calls “the ‘deep structure’ of society”.)
    – Such patterns will always be probabilistic: they will never fit the data exactly and will always be surrounded by confidence intervals.
    Moreover that will always be subject to revision, refinement or rejection in the light of new data or superior analysis.
    .
    In other words we end up with empiricism and applied econometrics, not Bhasker’s transcendental dialectical critical realism!

  2. Lars said:
    .
    “… if it acknowledges its dependence of the​ world out there…”
    .
    Is there “a world out there”?

  3. “It does not follow from the fact that the nature of the world can only be known from (a study of) science, that its nature is determined by (the structure of) science.”
    .
    Doesn’t it also not follow that, even if it should be true that only science can know the world, the world can be deductively proved not to be determined by science?
    .
    As Fischer Black intimated, aren’t both sides working largely in the dark? Why should anyone believe your stories over the other stories? What makes your magical thinking more compelling than theirs?

  4. Kuhn made much the same point: ‘the fact that the nature of the world can only be known from (a study of) science, that its nature is determined by (the structure of) science’, in his Structure of Scientific Revolutions. It is the anomalies thrown up by uncooperative nature, that disrupt our way of seeing the world, and create opportunities for emergence of new ‘concrete analogies’ (see Masterman ‘The nature of a paradigm,’ in Lakatos ed Criticism and the Growth of Knowledge), that can accommodate what were anomalies in old analogy.

    • Why can’t anomalies exist simply because people decide they want to see them?

      • If you read the case studies and experiments people initially can’t see the anomalies

        • On the Perception of Incongruity: A Paradigm

          Jerome S. Bruner and Leo Postman (1949)
          Harvard University

          First published in Journal of Personality, 18, 206-223.

          • Environmental perspectives are always at play past and present. Reminded of a effort during the early AIDS days where a group was set up to inform villages in Africa of its effects and the need to take precautions, which were contrary to established social mores. Their methodology and its inherent biases used to inform the locals did not work as intended or hoped – well meaning. Long story short the physical aids demonstrations played out like a punch and judy show and much to the teams aghast the evenings media presentation came off like a Mel Brooks movie. Seems these humans had never been conditioned from birth to respond to the tools used to pass on information like those attempting to deliver it eg. their methodology.

            .

            Best bit was the video presentation at night on a sheet with the whole village in attendance. Had never seen such a thing and were in stitches about it, contra the time, effort, money expended to film a village setting with actors in a realistic setting. The perspective was something none of them had ever viewed from such a panoramic setting, individual binocular vision was the only reality they had before. When asked why they were responding in such a manner they were informed the chickens running around in the foreground and underfoot was the most hilarious thing they had ever seen.

            .

            Inaccurate base lines established on dominate social perspectives which have questionable feed back loops from funding alone or orthodox projection should be focused on humanity in toto. Then again I know a highly accredited psychologist that thinks freakonomics is an economic insight to the human condition.

            • Similar research on cultural expectations in relation to interpretation of causal relationships between sequential shots in news reporting.

              • “causal relationships between sequential shots in news reporting.”

                .

                A Elon Musk tweet and market response … its so Temple Grandin.

  5. I wish I could agree with you, but you are wrong and there’s no way around the misapprehensions you introduce when transferring realist presumptions appropriate to the physical sciences to the social sciences, without considering that the ‘deep’ structures of society, as you term them, consist not in the physical properties of insensate structures and matter, but consist to large degree of information interpreted and processed in conformity with theories and concepts about the society. There is no social “reality existing independently of our knowledge and theories of it.” The social reality of institutions organizing and regulating social behavior consist in large part of the concepts and theories of social participants.
    .
    I would think this is rather obvious with regard to economics as a social science, which “works” well by pragmatic standards when it is successfully prescriptive. Economics, imho, should aim to be prescriptive, which implies that its best theories serve to organize the society, making the economy its creature, composed in an important sense of concepts and theories of economics.

    • Prescriptive goal seeking trotted out as the proverbial village – ?????

      • prescriptive performance seeking, if that’s a thing, yes

        I know enough of the world as it is to fully recognize that mainstream economics, neoliberal economics is a perverse example of a set of ideas organizing an economy that performs well for a few by performing badly for many, and fails altogether as a “science” by pragmatic standards of modeling accurately enough to “predictively” explain the values of observed variables and parameters.

        I do not see that state of affairs contradicting the meta-point: a theory of economics if accepted and adopted will shape the actual, institutional economy for the very good reason that the institutional economy embodies the ideas and concepts of economics subscribed by the participants

        • Call me old fashion … but I take economics as political theory w/a side of natural history in the first order of methodology and how at the least things [neoliberalism et al] can be reformed. Then maybe a reformation could be undertaken that as Lars points out – some new information could be incorporated, granted some have stakes driven pretty far in the ground.

    • I think Bruce Wilder is right, but will his prescriptions end up worsening my life, because he wants to punish nonviolent behavior such as derivatives trading? Will I be able to use derivatives to stop logging under his prescriptions?


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