On chance, probability, randomness, uncertainty and all that

26 February, 2014 at 23:04 | Posted in Statistics & Econometrics | 2 Comments

 

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  1. It is very important o consider the linguistic aspects of this. For example

    English; You have a low chance of doing this

    Greek: You have a low probability fo doing this

    English: This is highly possible

    Greek: This is highly probable

    i.e. in Greek, chance = possibility = probability in language use

    The equivalent for chance is Greek is luck

    So I think the English language complicates the matter and makes other people from other linguistic backgrounds wonder why are those people making videos to explain probability using so many different words for it?

    Is the same term used in Swedish for chance, possibility and probability?

    For example, in Russian there is sans for chance, vozmoznost for possibility and verayatnost for probability, like in English.

    Probability is basically a measure in a space of chance and possibilities

  2. I am unconvinced that the financial events of 2007/8 were ‘chance’ in the same sense as the weather. But, as in the storm example, it would have been good to know that the Bank’s fan chart was particularly unreliable.


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