Modeling economic risk

14 Apr, 2018 at 16:04 | Posted in Economics | Comments Off on Modeling economic risk

Model builders face a constant temptation to make things more complicated than necessary because this makes them appear more capable than they really are.

Remember that a model is not the truth.

It is a lie to help you get your point across.

And in the case of modeling economic risk, your model is a lie about others, who are probably lying themselves.

And what’s worse than a simple lie?

A complicated lie.