Modeling economic risk

14 April, 2018 at 16:04 | Posted in Economics | Leave a comment

sav2 Model builders face a constant temptation to make things more complicated than necessary because this makes them appear more capable than they really are.

Remember that a model is not the truth.

It is a lie to help you get your point across.

And in the case of modeling economic risk, your model is a lie about others, who are probably lying themselves.

And what’s worse than a simple lie?

A complicated lie.

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