On the impossibility of predicting the future
28 May, 2013 at 20:02 | Posted in Statistics & Econometrics | 1 Comment
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LARS P. SYLL 
I predict that the person who use statistics and modelling to steer his movement in the world is going to get hit by a car.
It would be nice if they tried to understand the here and now. If they tried to actually make society work, its not just something you found in nature, it is created and you are pissing in the labbspace. But it is ofcourse useful to know how economists are going to behave, having THAT knowledge is truly profitable.
The thing about thermodynamics, you’ll find it pretty much everywhere in the universe. It is also just statistics. The thing about quantum is that the formula can take on any shape you like, mess around with constants until it fits doesn’t make the analogy relevant. It doesn’t mean your model predicts the future.
Comment by Martin Kullberg— 29 May, 2013 #