Dieser Typus

21 Feb, 2019 at 12:30 | Posted in Varia | 2 Comments

kindDieser Typus der physisch und psychisch knapp vor dem biologischen Greisenalter zu Eltern gewordenen Städter – im Grunde eine ziemlich nach hinten geschobene Teenager-Schwangerschaft – blockiert die Zentren des geistigen Lebens. Der Berliner Cafégastronom Ralf Rüller sorgte vor einiger Zeit für einen mittleren Aufschrei mit seiner natürlich als faschistoid kritisierten Entscheidung, in den von ihm betriebenen Cafés keine Kinderwagen mehr einzulassen. Rüller ist zugegebenermaßen ein extremer Fall, denn zusätzlich erließ er ein Verbot für Laptops und Hunde, aber ebenso grundsätzlich gilt seinem Hardlinertum meine Sympathie.

Es ist für Kinder einfach total langweilig, länger als für das Ausschlürfen eines mit warmem Milchschaum gefüllten Bechers nötig, also länger als vier Minuten, in einem Café herumzusitzen. Und Kinder, die sich langweilen, aber noch keinen Begriff für das sie beunruhigende Gefühl der Langeweile haben, tun halt alles, um auf ihren Gefühlszustand hinzuweisen. Das verträgt sich natürlich schlecht mit den Bedürfnissen der übrigen Cafébesucher. Zeitunglesen zum Beispiel. Oder Nachdenken. In Ruhe und übrigens auch ungestört von den unendlichen Berichten von Kinderkrankheiten und Kindertagesstättenpolitika, die von den langsam ihren warmen Milchkaffee schlürfenden Erwachsenen lamentohaft vorgetragen werden.

Joachim Bessing/Die Zeit

Eltern gehen mit ihren Kleinkindern gerne ins Café. Leider.

Bedingungsloses Grundeinkommen

21 Feb, 2019 at 09:18 | Posted in Economics | Comments Off on Bedingungsloses Grundeinkommen

ZEIT: Ist Ihr Modell des Grundeinkommens übertragbar auf das ganze Land?

Bohmeyer: Mit unserem Modell geht es nicht. Bei uns finanziert sich das Grundeinkommen ja durch Crowdfunding von vielen Tausend Menschen für einige wenige, die es ausgezahlt bekommen. Das lässt sich nicht auf alle ausweiten …

bohmayerZEIT: Sollte es für alle eingeführt werden?

Bohmeyer: So weit sind wir noch nicht. Wenn ich es zu früh konkret mache, dann sprechen wir nicht mehr über das Wesentliche: die Bedingungslosigkeit. Die SPD hat beispielsweise mehrere Vorschläge gemacht, in denen sie das Wort Grundeinkommen verwendet hat. Aber all das hat mit einem Grundeinkommen, wie ich es verstehe, nichts zu tun. Ein echtes Grundeinkommen ist bedingungslos und für alle.

ZEIT: Klingt ein wenig wie eine neue Form des Sozialismus.

Bohmeyer: Nein. Das Schöne am Grundeinkommen ist, dass man es nicht in das klassische Links-rechts-Schema einordnen kann. Denn es vereint die besten Elemente aus dem Egalitarismus und dem Liberalismus. Man hat mit dem Grundeinkommen maximale Freiheit. Gleichzeitig sind wir bis zu den ersten 1.000 Euro gleich. Das ist für mich ein Mix aus verschiedenen Gesellschaftsentwürfen. Wir alle brauchen ja Geld, um zu leben. Und wir machen es derzeit unnötig spannend, ob jeder es schafft, genug Geld zu erwirtschaften. Wir sollten ein bisschen die Spannung rausnehmen und gucken, welche Kräfte das entfesselt.

Lisa Nienhaus/Die Zeit

‘Nu ropar någon Antikrist’

19 Feb, 2019 at 19:36 | Posted in Varia | Comments Off on ‘Nu ropar någon Antikrist’

 

Till minnet av min vän Bengt Nilsson.
Det gör fortfarande ont.
Det känns ofta — som du brukade säga — ‘förtvivlat.’
Men jag minns också skratten, glädjen, omtanken, den mäktiga intelligensen, den drastiska humorn, och det starka sociala patoset.
Livet går vidare, men kommer alltid att vara lite gråare, lite tristare, utan dig min vän.

Do Wah Diddy

19 Feb, 2019 at 19:14 | Posted in Varia | Comments Off on Do Wah Diddy

 

Nothing — absolutely nothing — beats the 60’s when it comes to pop music.

Bayesian statistics — an introduction

19 Feb, 2019 at 16:26 | Posted in Statistics & Econometrics | Comments Off on Bayesian statistics — an introduction

ben

If you look for a Bayesian statistics textbook accessible also to students with limited knowledge of statistics and math — this is the book!

What it takes​ to become a great economist

19 Feb, 2019 at 08:36 | Posted in Economics | 6 Comments

The master-economist must possess a rare combination of gifts …​ He must be mathematician, historian, statesman, philosopher—in some degree. He must understand symbols and speak in words. He must contemplate the particular, in terms of the general, and touch abstract and concrete in the same flight of thought. He must study the present in the light of the past for the purposes of the future. No part of man’s nature or his institutions must be entirely outside his regard. He must be purposeful and disinterested in a simultaneous mood, as aloof and incorruptible as an artist, yet sometimes as near to earth as a politician.

John Maynard Keynes

Economics students today are complaining more and more about the way economics is taught. The lack of fundamental diversity — not just path-dependent elaborations of the mainstream canon — and narrowing of the curriculum, dissatisfy econ students all over the world. The frustrating lack of real-world relevance has led many of them to demand the discipline to start developing a more open and pluralistic theoretical and methodological attitude.

There are many things about the way economics is taught today that worry yours truly. Today’s students are force-fed with mainstream neoclassical theories and models. That lack of pluralism is cause for serious concern.

However, I find the most salient deficiency in ‘modern’ economics education in the total absence of courses in the history of economic thought and economic methodology. That is deeply worrying since a science that doesn’t self-reflect and asks important methodological and science-theoretical questions about the own activity, is a science in dire straits.

Methodology is about how we do economics, how we evaluate theories, models and arguments. To know and think about methodology is important for every economist. Without methodological awareness it’s really impossible to understand what you are doing and why you’re doing it. Dismissing methodology is dismissing a necessary and vital part of science.

For someone who has spent forty years in economics academia, it’s hopeful to see all these young economics students that want to see a real change in economics and the way it’s taught. Never give up. Never give in.

Finland’s basic income experiment​ — a preliminary evaluation

18 Feb, 2019 at 19:50 | Posted in Politics & Society | 2 Comments

According to the analysis of the register data, basic income recipients were no better or worse at finding employment than those in the control group during the first year of the experiment, and in this respect there are no statistically significant differences between the groups …

FINLAND’S BASIC INCOME EXPERIMENTAccording to the analysis of the survey data, the wellbeing of the basic income recipients was clearly better than that of the control group. Those in the test group experienced significantly fewer problems related to health, stress and ability to concentrate than those in the control group. According to the results, those in the test group were also considerably more confident in their own future and their ability to influence societal issues than the control group. As regards generalised trust, i.e. trust in other people, there was a similar, but smaller, difference …

Despite the register data showing no differences in employment status between the groups, according to the survey data, those in the test group were more confident of their employment prospects than the control group … The survey results showed significant differences between the groups for different aspects of wellbeing. The results are in no way contradictory. Even if the basic income had no effect on employment status one way or the other, it may still have significant effects on wellbeing, which is also indicated by the results of this study.

Olli Kangas et al / Ministry of Social Affairs and Health, Finland

Les ‘gilets jaunes’ et l’antisémitisme

18 Feb, 2019 at 18:59 | Posted in Politics & Society | Comments Off on Les ‘gilets jaunes’ et l’antisémitisme

 

Lors de la manifestation des ‘gilets jaunes’ à Paris de ce samedi, le philosophe Alain Finkielkraut a été insulté par certains manifestants avec des expressions antisémites.

«Ni victime ni héros,» mais d’abord «inquiet pour tous les Juifs de France,» Finkielkraut ne porte pas plainte: «Ce n’est pas l’esprit de vengeance qui m’anime, mais j’ai envie de contribuer à la prise de conscience. Il s’agit aujourd’hui de réfléchir à ce qui nous arrive, pour trouver la meilleure des parades.»

Machine learning — getting results that are completely wrong

18 Feb, 2019 at 14:31 | Posted in Statistics & Econometrics | 7 Comments

machMachine-learning techniques used by thousands of scientists to analyse data are producing results that are misleading and often completely wrong.

Dr Genevera Allen from Rice University in Houston said that the increased use of such systems was contributing to a “crisis in science” …

The data sets are very large and expensive. But, according to Dr Allen, the answers they come up with are likely to be inaccurate or wrong because the software is identifying patterns that exist only in that data set and not the real world …

Machine learning systems and the use of big data sets has accelerated the crisis, according to Dr Allen. That is because machine learning algorithms have been developed specifically to find interesting things in datasets and so when they search through huge amounts of data they will inevitably find a pattern.

“The challenge is can we really trust those findings?” she told BBC News.

“Are those really true discoveries that really represent science? Are they reproducible? If we had an additional dataset would we see the same scientific discovery or principle on the same dataset? And unfortunately the answer is often probably not.”

BBC News

The central problem with the present ‘machine learning’ and ‘big data’ hype is that so many think that they can get away with analysing real-world phenomena without any (commitment to) theory. But — data never speaks for itself. Without a prior statistical set-up, there actually are no data at all to process. And — using a machine learning algorithm will only produce what you are looking for.

Machine learning algorithms always express a view of what constitutes a pattern or regularity. They are never theory-neutral.

Clever data-mining tricks are not enough to answer important scientific questions. Theory matters.

Weitermachen Sanssouci

18 Feb, 2019 at 10:11 | Posted in Education & School | Comments Off on Weitermachen Sanssouci

 

This satirical film is not far from reality today. Most of us working within the universities have for a long time been aware of what the degradation of teaching and research do to both students and teachers. [h/t Steve Keen]

Why I am not a Bayesian

17 Feb, 2019 at 18:20 | Posted in Theory of Science & Methodology | 16 Comments

What I do not believe is that the relation that matters is simply the entailment relation between the theory, on the one hand, and the evidence on the other. The reasons that the relation cannot be simply that of entailment are exactly the reasons why the hypothetico-deductive account … is inaccurate; but the suggestion is at least correct in sensing that our judgment of the relevance of evidence to theory depends on the perception of a structural connection between the two, and that degree of belief is, at best, epiphenomenal. In the determination of the bearing of evidence on theory there seem to be mechanisms and strategems that have no apparent connection with degrees of belief, which are shared alike by people advocating different theories. Save for the most radical innovations, scientists seem to be in close agreement regarding what would or would not be evidence relevant to a novel theory; claims as to the relevance to some hypothesis of some observation or experiment are frequently buttressed by detailed calculations and arguments.e905b578f6 All of these features of the determination of evidential relevance suggest that that relation depends somehow on structural, objective features connecting statements of evidence and statements of theory. But if that is correct, what is really important and really interesting is what these structural features may be. The condition of positive relevance, even if it were correct, would simply be the least interesting part of what makes evidence relevant to theory.

None of these arguments is decisive against the Bayesian scheme of things … But taken together, I think they do at least strongly suggest that there must be relations between evidence and hypotheses that are important to scientific argument and to confirmation but to which the Bayesian scheme has not yet penetrated.

Clark Glymour

Libertarianism in perspective

17 Feb, 2019 at 18:12 | Posted in Politics & Society | Comments Off on Libertarianism in perspective

 
reisberg

Räddaren i nöden

17 Feb, 2019 at 12:17 | Posted in Varia | Comments Off on Räddaren i nöden

radioI dessa tider, när ljudrummet dränks i den kommersiella radions tyckmyckentrutade ordbajseri och pubertalflamsande tjafs, har man nästan gett upp.

Men det finns ljus i mörkret.

I programmet Text och musik med Eric Schüldt — som sänds på söndagsförmiddagarna i P2 mellan klockan 11 och 12 — kan man lyssna på seriös musik och en programledare som har något att säga och inte bara låter foderluckan glappa. Att få höra någon med intelligens och känsla tala om saker som vi alla går och bär på djupt inom oss — men nästan aldrig vågar prata om — är en lisa för själen.
 

Der Überirdische ist tot

17 Feb, 2019 at 10:41 | Posted in Varia | Comments Off on Der Überirdische ist tot


Bruno Ganz (1941-2019). RIP.

In complete subjection to the ego

16 Feb, 2019 at 11:44 | Posted in Varia | Comments Off on In complete subjection to the ego

widmer8The illusion that egoists will be pleased, or flattered, by interest taken in their habits persists throughout life; whereas, in fact, persons like Widmerpool, in complete subjection to the ego, are, by the nature of that infirmity, prevented from supposing that the minds of others could possibly be occupied by any subject far distant from the egoist’s own affairs.

A Dance to the Music of Time

Guess we all have our​ own Widmerpools among friends and acquaintances​ …

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