Vi behöver göra mer

30 Sep, 2011 at 18:43 | Posted in Economics | Comments Off on Vi behöver göra mer

Som jag redan tidigare haft anledning konstatera, vågar Adam Posen, medlem av Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Board,  ha ett längre  blickfält än ECB och de flesta riksbanker runt om i Europa. Även om inflationen på kort sikt är ett (övergående) problem har han insett vikten av en expansiv politik för att hantera den realekonomiska kris (med sjunkande tillväxt och ökande arbetslöshet) som vi alla nu vet att finanskrisen är på väg in i. Posen säger – i ett tal han höll på en konferens för några veckor sedan:

Both the UK and the global economy are facing a familiar foe at present: policy defeatism. Throughout modern economic history, whether in Western Europe in the 1920s, in the US and elsewhere in the 1930s, or in Japan in the 1990s, every major financial crisis-driven downturn has been followed by premature abandonment—if not reversal—of the macroeconomic stimulus policies that are necessary to sustained recovery. Every time, this was due to unduly influential voices claiming some combination of the destructiveness of further policy stimulus, the ineffectiveness of further policy stimulus, or the political corruption from further policy stimulus. Every time those voices were wrong on each and every count. Those voices are being heard again today, much too loudly. It is the duty of economic policymakers including central bankers to rebut these false claims head on. It is even more important that we do the right thing for the economy rather than be slowed, confused, or intimidated by such false claims.

[W]hile it is rational for any given individual household or even any one bank to cut back on risk as a result of this legacy of bad debt, that means that a substantial (and sub-optimal) number of worthwhile real investment projects are going unfunded and thus are not undertaken. The cost to this investment shortfall in terms of the immediate growth outlook are substantial, and the longer-term costs are even greater in terms of impeded restructuring, diminished aggregate supply, and foregone innovation and productivity growth. Expansionary monetary policy, both on its own and in concert with constructive investment supporting policies by government, can provide the risk financing and the risk bearing capacity the economy currently lacks … In this economic context, we will know that monetary policy has done enough for long enough when long-term interest rates rise due to demand for capital from our private sector taking on risk and making investments.

At present, when there is too much risk aversion in the private sector, the British public can ill-afford unjustified risk aversion on the part of its monetary policymakers as well. The Bank of England and other central banks can do more for our economic recovery effectively, beneficially, and without political taint. And we can do more without causing high inflation. Therefore, we must do more to fulfil our responsibility to the British people. We are obliged to look past the unfounded fears of others and to get past any unwarranted reluctance on our own part, and do the right thing with the monetary tools at our disposal.

Adam Posens tal borde vara obligatorisk läsning för alla dessa “ansvarsfulla” finansministrar och riksbankschefer!

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